Lee Jay Walker Dip BA MA
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Why preserve the nation of Afghanistan?
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Published: May.29.2008 @ 11:40 pm

 

Why preserve the nation of Afghanistan? 

The war on terrorism took the United States to Afghanistan and both the Taliban and Islamic fundamentalists were soon beaten.  Yet this success was built on regional cooperation, for the Northern Alliance was supported by both the Russian Federation and Iran; while Russia gave her approval for the nations of Central Asia to help the United States and American bases were allowed.

Yet what now?  Does the international community really believe that different ethnic and religious groups want to live together?  Or maybe the international community will be brave enough to de-Islamize this land via education, health care facilities, law, and other important institutions and services? 

Alternatively, does the international community really believe that Afghanistan can be preserved under conservative Islam, albeit under Western "eyes?" If so, why do they think this?  For all indicators appear that either ethnic or religious conflicts will continue, and that conservative Islam will hold-back modernity and fail to set women free from their bondage.

Or is the international community merely spending vast resources on preserving elites deemed to be partners and on schemes which sound nice in theory, but in reality do not belong to Afghanistan?  For in the past many failures have been made by organizations who had good intentions, yet few results were made, notably Kosovo, Somalia, Rwanda, and many others.

So should Afghanistan either be allowed to be carved-up or de-Islamized?  The first option appears possible and territorial boundaries could be changed to allow Tajiks to join with Tajikistan; and for Uzbeks to be linked with Uzbekistan.  While Shia Muslims would be allowed to unite with Iran and Pathans merge with Pakistan.  Of course many communities will reside in other regions, yet all Afghan citizens should be given a choice and minorities will after decide their preserved options.

With regards to Kabul, this city could be either an independent miniature entity or an economic and political free zone.  Remember, Singapore was small in size, however, her economic development must be admired and by having a free and open Kabul the international community can maintain a small United Nations military force to police this area.

This may sound strange, yet look at the benefits, for you would be giving economic aid to nation states who could absorb their own ethnic groups much easier.  And major international aid could be directed to regional governments and all major international bodies like NAFTA, EU, ASEAN, World Bank, UN, and so on must be involved; alongside regional structures in order to break the endless problems of Afghanistan which spill over to neighboring nations.

The other alternative would be to de-Islamize conservative Islam in Afghanistan, and this applies to education, womens welfare, law being based on secularism, and other important issues.   This may be deemed imperialist, however, for the future generations of Afghanistan this is their only hope.  Otherwise women will continue to be abused and children will be brainwashed by conservative Islamic clerics and another generation will be lost to poverty and hatred.

Of course I can hear liberals and Muslims alike denouncing this "imperialist idea," yet look at the alternative.  You will have continuing conflict between different ethnic groups based on ethnicity, religion or  based on clan loyalty; while women will be mere objects and they will remain in the " shadows."  While criminality will destabilize regional nations and heroin production will continue to grow.

Added to this will be a continuing economic burden on many nations without any results and possible future open hostility aimed at the international community.  While conservative Islam will continue to "strangle" society and Islamic radicals could once more destabilize Central Asia and Western China.

If American policy was to solely eradicate Islamic radicalism, then this will ultimately fail, for Afghanistan, like Somalia, will continue to be a failed nation and hotbeds of terrorism will remain.  Also, regional nations in Central Asia, China, Iran, the Russian Federation, Pakistan, and other nations, deserve better, for they all helped America in her quest to destroy Islamic fundamentalism.

One thing is for sure, and that is Afghanistan is no Cyprus, and taking the easy way and preserving the status quo will ultimately fail.  So will brave policy makers come forward and challenge current modes of thinking based on status quo?  This applies to either de-Islamization or allowing Afghanistan to disintegrate. 

The children of Afghanistan and women deserve a chance?  And current policy concepts are not allowing this to happen.  Instead the old Afghanistan of ethnic and religious hatred is growing and women are secondary subjects.  So for the children of Afghanistan and women, lets give them hope and the chance to "breathe" from the endless cycle of hopelessness. 

Lee Jay Walker Dip BA MA

http://journals.aol.com/leejaywalker/uk/

AZERBAIJAN - An unfinished war with Christian Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh may re-ignite?
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Published: May.29.2008 @ 3:11 pm | Last edited: May.29.2008 @ 10:14 am

 

AZERBAIJAN - An unfinished war with Christian Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh may re-ignite?

The collapse of the Soviet Union led to many tensions within the former Soviet Union and since then you have had many frozen conflicts.  This certainly applies to the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan.  The outcome of this brutal civil war meant many deaths on both sides, however, Christian Armenians overcame their numerical weakness and managed to control this region.  However, today, with increasing energy wealth, the nation of Azerbaijan may be thinking about starting a fresh war with Christian Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh?

Before concentrating on this, it is important to look at the regional balance and possible dangers for Azerbaijan.  Therefore, if we look at the region we see many frozen conflicts or current tensions in Abkhazia (Georgia), South Ossetia (Georgia), Chechnya (Russian Federation), Daghestan (Russian Federation), Ingushetia (Russian Federation), and the Kurdish issue in eastern Turkey.  Some of these faultlines are based on religion or ethnicity, or over the control of resources.  However, with a heavy mix of ethnicity and two major faiths, Orthodox Christianity and Islam, then it is a real melting pot.

Another dimension is the Russian Federation supporting Armenia and Turkey, a member of NATO, being pro-Azerbaijan.  Also, the American dimension is complex and sadly based on energy issues.  After all, the Armenian lobby is very strong and potent within parts of America and the government is sympathetic.  But geopolitics and realism still controls, therefore, the USA is using Azerbaijan in order to counter the influence of both the Russian Federation and Iran.  This applies to energy routes which bypass both the Russian Federation and Iran.

Also, if we look back into history, then we must remember the 1915 genocide of more than 1.5 million Armenian Christians and Assyrian Christians by Islamic and nationalistic Turkey.  This genocide in time would galvanize many Armenian Christians when a new war erupted in the 1990s with Azerbaijan because the fear of defeat and massacre was real.  So past history haunts this region and this certainly applies to Nagorno-Karabakh.

If we now look to modern times, then clearly it would appear that the economic gap between potential military spending is vastly different and this certainly favours Azerbaijan.  The one main comfort at the moment for Armenia is the support they get from the Russian Federation and Iran.  For Iran the situation is complex because most Azeri people are Shia Muslim, like Iran, however, Iran fears a greater Azerbaijan because of the sizeable Azeri community in northern Iran.  So outwardly, Iran talks about Islamic unity, but covertly, they do not want to see Armenia weakened.

However, increasing Azeri purchases of military equipment is alarming many Armenians.  Also, you have many divisions within Armenia with regards to politics.  Therefore, the current leaders of Azerbaijan "can smell blood" and maybe they will try to re-start this frozen conflict which erupts from time to time?  If so, we could see a real clash of titans because the Russian Federation and Turkey have major self interests and NATO would be in a flux.  So will the new leaders of Azerbaijan re-start a fresh war over Nagorno-Karabakh or can a deal be made based on autonomy?

Lee Jay Walker Dip BA MA

http://journals.aol.com/leejaywalker/uk/

http://groups.msn.com/Alternativethinkingaboutglobalissues

Market confidence remains extremely mixed.
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Published: May.28.2008 @ 3:25 pm

 

Market confidence remains extremely mixed.

Since the subprime crisis and then Alt-A ripple it is clear that global confidence is relatively negative.  However, specialists remain extremely mixed about the possible outcome in America and the same applies to the global impact of negative growth in America.  So does anyone really know the outlook for late 2008 and 2009?

First of all, it is abundantly clear that it is the mainly mega financial institutions in America which have problems and not regional banks, however, the knock on effect could still cause mayhem.  Yet the main weakness within the American financial sector appears to be mega-companies, notably Citibank, Morgan Stanley, Wachovia, the collapsed Bear Sterns, and several others.  Therefore, why did these financial institutions get it wrong?

One symptom of the Alan Greenspan era at the Fed was de-regulation and it is clear that he did not run a tight ship when it applies to regulation.  Therefore, hedge funds, and other sectors grew outside of the role of traditional banking and investments.  At first it appeared to be a gravy train, however, suddenly the train jolted and then it came to a stop.  So what happened to risk management and other safety mechanisms?   Did they all fail or was limited regulation too risky?

Irrespective of your opinion, it would appear that de-regulation got out of hand and borrowing requirements, loans, risky investments, and so forth, took a new turn becuase the rules were changed and sadly it would appear that this even applies to basic rules.  So more money was flowing into negative investments and ultimately you had a bad loan crisis and liquidity crisis.  The snowball effect, therefore, spread far and wide because many international institutions also invested heavily and banks like Northern Rock, in the United Kingdom, needed to be bailed out.

Yet just like the crisis began the demise also appears to be rapid and now many financial institutions are optimistic that the worse is over.  However, other issues, like Alt-A, remain to be problematic and it is too early to know which way it will go.  Despite this, we have both sides playing up the crisis or playing it down.  Therefore, just what does the rest of 2008 have in store and will 2009 be negative?

Frankly, most people believe that a slowdown will happen in America, Japan, and many European nations; however, it is more complex because nations like China and the Russian Federation should see strong growth.  Therefore, the global economy is now much more divided and geographical regions or other economic systems may escape the fall out?   But from my point of view I am going to sit on the fence.

Therefore, I believe that America, Japan, and many European nations, will suffer, however, I believe that it may not be so dramatic because all nations still have dynamic sectors within the wider domestic economy.  However, if inflation gets out of control, then my forecast would change and the same applies to increasing prices of raw materials, energy, and foodstuffs.  So I am going to sit on the fence and study the next few months because now, frankly speaking, it could go either way, and does anyone really know which direction the wind will change in late 2008 and 2009?

Lee Jay Walker Dip BA MA

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